Will it be the same thing all over again, only exactly the opposite? If Zogby's exit polls hold true (always use caution with exit polls, as we learned 4 years ago), Kerry wins the election, and Bush wins the popular vote. Now that would be ironic. It would be interesting to see what impact that would have on the pre-election polls done by Time Magazine that showed the majority of Americans are in favor of abolishing the electoral college. Do you think that opinion would change, as well?

CAUTION: Early 2000 exit polls showed Gore +3 in Florida [and we know what happened there]; showed Gore-Bush even in CO [Bush won by 9], 2000 exits showed Gore +4 in AZ [Bush won by 6]

Zogby International's 2004 Predictions
(as of Nov. 2, 2004 5:00pm)

Zogby International Finds: Bush at 49.4%, Kerry at 49.1%

The nationwide telephone poll of 955 likely voters was conducted (November 1-2, 2004). The MOE is +/- 3.2

Well, after what I can honestly say was one of the best weeks of my life, I am back home again, quite tired but feeling great.

I got to spend time with a good friend, and made a new one, too. I saw the dedication, hard work, fun and shenanigans of the young people that make the USS John C. Stennis work. If you ever have a chance to sail on a US Navy ship for a cruise, take the opportunity, no matter what. You'll be glad you did.

Being home again feels both great and terrible. I could have spent another few weeks, easily - Mostly because of the people I had the opportunity and privilege to meet and spend time with.

From this cruise I take home a number of important things:

• Spending only a day and a half in Hawaii is as close as you can get to committing a sin without paying for it by going to hell. So, I have to go back. The north shore is awesome.
• Good friends just happen.
• Getting old sucks.
• Being old is a state of mind.
• The modern aircraft carrier is an incredibly amazing system, and a terrific example of the integration of people, process and technology.
• People make the world go round, and it takes all kinds.
• If you spend a week sleeping on a big ship on the ocean, don't be surprised if you wake up on land to the feeling of swaying. Woah.
• The F-14 Tomcat is FREAKING LOUD. It's also being retired, which is a sad thing. And end of an era.

People are emailing, IM'ing and calling me asking for pictures and how it went. Coming soon - I'm pretty wiped and still need to unpack my crap. Plenty of pictures and stories to come. Probably 20 of you will be interested in my trip, and hundreds of others will wonder what happened to the random technology posts. Oh well, it's my blog, and heck, I'm still trying to figure out why anyone pays attention anyhow! ;)

I have to say, as someone who was just searched under a special screening procedure at the PDX airport, I'm glad the TSA is doing things the way it's doing them.

I'm a single passenger, with a one-way ticket to the middle of the Pacific Ocean, who changed his flight at the very last minute yesterday. So I got flagged.

Good.

I feel safer knowing that I was searched and singled out. Not because of who I am, but because of the situaion I created by choice.

After the special screening, not knowing why I had been singled out (and being the curious person that I am), I asked one of the TSA employees if the decision to search me was just random (at that point I assumed it was). She told me that no, it's not really random, and that's when I realized the profile/pattern I fit into.

And the Hawaiian Airlines gate person just called my name and inspected my paperwork to verify I had been properly screened.

I'm glad someone's paying attention.


--------------------
Greg Hughes

Your future will be decided on November 2. Be part of the decision, no matter what sides of any fences you fall on...

Ballots have been sent to all Oregon voters. Fill yours out. Return it. It's important.

You can't afford not to. We're not just checking boxes. We're deciding issues, left and right, conservative and liberal, change or stay put. Suit up and show up. Make your statement, make it yours, and make it well.

People far better than you or me have died for your right to cast your ballot. There's no reason that you shouldn't be able to make the effort to do so.

I voted. I did my part. Now you go.

And I thought I was pretty geeky with a Tablet PC sitting on the seat and a radio transmitter for audio on the radio... My PC-in-the-car setup 's got nothin' on what J.P. Stewart's doing...

A bunch of Microsoft employees have started a club to pursue their common hobby, as car enthusiasts, where they're building computer equipment into their automobiles. Channel 9's Robert Scoble interviewed one of those employees, J.P. Stewart, on video, and took a close look at what he's done with his ride:

Link: Channel 9 - J.P. Stewart - A new hobby: putting Windows XP in your car

Low-power computers (Mini-ITX style) in the trunk and mini touch-screens in the cab, all built in and custom fit, make for a really cool setup.

DVD, Windows XP, WiFi, GPS, sound system integration through the CD changer control, USB digital sound, and lots of cool stuff. A portable USB 2.0 hard drive moves from car to home or office and allows you to copy files like music and stuff. Or use the WiFi to copy/sync music from the driveway while you're at your home.

Some of J.P.'s goals, now and future: GPS with Streets and Trips (done), Media Player for music (done), Internet always on everywhere (will be using TMobile Motorola phone with Bluetooth, and the computer will use it as its network connection).

And he says he has less than $1000 into the computer equipment, and some uncounted number of hours of his time. Wow. Very cool stuff.

It looks as if the Cingular/AT&T Wireless merger will be approved on Monday. This means big changes for AT&T Wireless customers, so be sure to do your research. Already many medium-size business accounts have been bounced around as this thing starts to happen.

From Engadget: "...the big question is whether or not the shrinking of the cellular market from six major players to five will lead to significantly cheaper prices for calling plans and cellphones."

Yeah, and then there's the concern that ATTWS customers already suffering from lackluster service will be even worse off.

We'll see.

Carl Franklin wrote some thoughtful commentary about a weblog post by Scott Hanselman on the subject of podcasting. Then Dave Winer commented on Carl's post. Rory follows up with a far-reaching examination of the arguments.

Updates:

• Todd Maffin has some great practical things to say about making podcasting work (found via Scoble)
• and Scott Hanselman has since responded to the commentary himself.

It's an interesting conversation, and one well worth having.

I have been listening to podcasts for weeks now, and to MP3 audio shows since before the term "podcast" was coined. I still don't really like the term, but anyhow... Airplanes are a place I find them most useful - but they have not completely replaced my drive-time commute, which totals about 2 hours a day, because the content quality just isn't there for me yet, with a couple of notable exceptions. I do get a certain amount of enjoyment from podcasts - from some of them, anyhow. Mostly by people you probably never heard of. I really don't have a need or desire to listen to "experts" in go on and on and on and on and on and on about how podcasting just changed the world. A medium that talks about itself feels a lot like MLM. It can't last forever. You wanna talk about the technology your using, make it useful for me - make the time I spend listening to you really, truly worthwhile. It's the content people, CONTENT!

Another thing, about the concept that podcasting will replace/kill radio as we know it - I am not convinced on that one yet. I don't have to think about my radio. It's always there and just turns on and works. No sync, no charging, no programming - just on and off. Therefore I use it. More work than that and it loses some of its utility. They said TV would replace radio. It didn't. In fact, it just made radio bigger. We shouldn't be trying to kill something - we should be trying to create something new. There is a difference.

And regardless of what Dave says, or whether he was involved in creating PowerPoint, and despite a number of other inflammatory things I could pull from his comment on Carl's post and react to, but wont... Scott is most definitely *not* an opponent of technological progress, so use of the term "Luddite" is - well - misplaced at best and flat out mean at worst.

One thing's for sure: It's not at all a useful label in this case. I could use certain blanket terms to describe Dave's words and actions in a variety of situations, and while they may be accurate in terms of one or two things he has said or done in the past, they would not really describe him in whole. It would be wrong of me to call names, so I won't. I wish Dave wouldn't. It takes away from the conversation, and Scott is one person I listen to with great regard for making very complicated things work in the real world.

I don't think Scott was implying (as Dave seems to state) that podcasting was a replacement for PowerPoint. He was using PowerPoint as a metaphor, to show how both technologies - in his opinion - tend to fail to meet their own goals, for man of the same reasons.

Scott originally said, about Podcasting:

 - Clever, yes.
 - Interesting, yes.
 - A new kind of media? Maybe.
 - Useful? Not to me.

Then he points out that using XML to point to multi-megabyte files is contradictory to certain vocal arguments made in the community of late. That's another valid point.

He also correctly points out that the the medium does not lend itself to skimming, browsing or efficient dissemination of multiple pieces of information.

I agree with that position. The people who are making the most noise about this new stuff are people who seem to have plenty of time to record podcasts and to listen to all the regulars. It's a technology that will - by it's very nature - limit the number of people we can listen to and communicate with. It also tends to be a lot more one-way than blogging. Podcasting is not blogging, it's not radio, it's not even broadcasting in reality. But it is cool, and it does have potential. Where it goes we don't know - Rarely does an experiment turn out just the way the founding fathers intended, you know.

Scott has a good point. Carl has a good counterpoint. Dave kind of missed the point but hurled a good insult (good only if you're the one doing the hurling, anyhow). Rory did a great job of taking a good, long step back and covering the bases.

All are very smart guys with great ideas and technological innovation in their pasts.

Pointing out the problems with a technology does not make one a Luddite. Telling people to wait and see before they speak actually just delays technological progress. Hmmmm... Deeelaaayyyys techhhnoloooogicalll progrrressss.... Yeahhh.....

Open, informed, honest discussions are good. Names and insults don't help.

So that's all nice, and yeah discussion is important. But what about podcasting?

What Rory said:

"Just walk away with this: Podcasting is serious Power to the People technology, and we should be excited about that."

Most importantly (I think), here is my pre-emptive thought: Keep the conversation open. Let people comment openly - good, bad or otherwise - and use the information to do things better, and to shape this experiment into something great. If someone counters your position, listen to them. No one person or group owns it. Everyone owns it. Some will innovate, but all should lead. Don't ruin a good thing with politics and personalities.

Interstingly, Engadget just posted a review of the Bose SoundDock, and concluded it costs too much:

“We like its looks, but $300 is just a bit too pricy for us, especially without stereo separation greater than three feet and no other audio inputs besides the iPod connector. Next!”

What's so interesting about that? Well, it also happens to be the single item they're advertising for sale the past several days in their RSS feed...

Editorial freedom, or just another oopsie?

AnandTech has a review of Windows XP Media Center Edition 2005, that - well - tops all the other reviews for word count, clarity and how deep they get into the software. If you're at all interested in learning about this version of the Windows XP operating system, check out the 17 pages of detail, detail, detail:

http://www.anandtech.com/multimedia/showdoc.aspx?i=2240

(from digitalmediathoughts.com)

Saw this coming, had a discussion with a colleague this morning about it, and Security Pipeline has an article about it.

Google's desktop search (in public beta) indexes local machine content to let you search though it and quickly find stuff on your computer.

Problem is, it might let others find and read your stuff if your computer is used by anyone other than you. Hmmm. Details...

From the article:

If you're the computer's only user, the software is helpful "as a photographic memory of everything you've seen on the computer," said Marissa Mayer, director of consumer Web products at Google Inc. The giant index remains on the computer and isn't shared with Google. The company can't access it remotely even if it gets a subpoena ordering it to do so, Mayer said.

Where the privacy and security concerns arise is when the computer is shared.

Type in "hotmail.com" and you'll get copies, or stored caches, of messages that previous users have seen. Enter an e-mail address and you can read all the messages sent to and from that address. Type "password" and get password reminders that were sent back via e-mail.

Acknowledging the concerns, Mayer said managers of shared computers should think twice about installing the software until Google develops advanced features like password protection and multi-user support.

Integrated instant messaging that extends its presence and person information to other products, and which reaches outside itself to integrate with other communication products, is on the way. This is a big part of Microsoft's move into the VOIP world.

From Microsoft Monitor:

Earlier today, Microsoft announced the new Office messaging client, codename Istanbul, which is scheduled to ship first half 2005.

Through Istanbul Microsoft plans to bring disparate messaging capabilities, such as IM and telephony, right into Office. To get there Microsoft will deliver new identification capabilities to its server products and the hybrid 'Live Communications' IM client.

Istanbul is yet another Microsoft effort to pull technologies into Office and so extend the suite’s utility. Remember that address book, calendar and e-mail features existed in separate products before Microsoft brought them into Office through Outlook, which hooked into Exchange Server. The Live Communications Client will bring IM, telephony and identity services into Office, but, again, connected to a server product.

I'll be going on vacation this coming weekend for a week plus a couple additional days. I'll be able to post the details when I get back, but for now let's just say it's going to be a very, very different kind of vacation, and I am definitely looking forward to the experience. That 5GB Seagate CF-II hard drive that I ripped out of the Rio Carbon MP3 player is finally going to get its real workout in my digital camera.

Microsoft has released Virtual PC 2004 Service Pack One. If you're using VPC2004, you'll want to review, download and likely apply this update.

• Get the VPC 2004 SP1 download here
• Get the Service Pack Readme file here

Lots of fixes and improvements in this service pack, so be sure to take a look.

More information about the service pack from the Microsoft site:

SP1 also includes the following additional software updates

• A new Virtual Disk Precompactor. A utility that is designed to "zero out"—that is, overwrite with zeros—any available blank space on a virtual hard disk.

• Updated version of Virtual Machine Additions.

• Update to support TCP segmentation offloading. Prior to SP1, if TCP Segmentation Offloading was activated, some virtual networking features would not function correctly. With SP1, if your physical network adapter supports TCP segmentation offloading, you can activate TCP segmentation offloading, and virtual networking will function correctly.

• Update to support Group Policy Software Installation. For more information about Group Policy Software Installation, see Help and Support Center in your Microsoft Windows Server 2003 operating system.

• Update to change the default performance option from Give processes on the host system priority to Run Virtual PC at maximum speed.

• The hotfix described in article 833506, which describes how Virtual PC 2004 may stop responding when a virtual machine is started, in the Microsoft Knowledge Base.

Microsoft Virtual PC 2004 Service Pack 1 (SP1) contains the latest software updates for Microsoft Virtual PC 2004 that improve the reliability, performance and manageability of Virtual PC. Updates have been made to improve the performance of Windows XP Service Pack 2 as a guest in Virtual PC, to improve the manageability of virtual machines when used with SMS 2003 Service Pack 1, and to provide support for running Windows Server 2003 Standard Edition as the host operating system.

Some of the fixes included with SP1 have been previously released as separate updates. This service pack combines them into one update.

Important: You must shut down or turn off all guest operating systems before installing SP1. This ensures that there are no virtual machines in a saved state. This is important because saved states are not compatible between SP1 and all previous versions of Virtual PC 2004.

Service Pack 1 includes an updated version of Virtual Machine Additions. You should update the version of Virtual Machine Additions on all virtual machines where Virtual Machine Additions is installed. For more information, see "Installing Virtual Machine Additions" in Virtual PC Help.

In a well-written and well-argued article on Security Pipeline, Mitch Wagner tells us the story of the little pigs and their houses of straw and brick, and then draws from the story to illustrate the state of Internet security, stating:

"The preceding has been a fairy tale with no bearing on the current state of Internet security."

Except that it really does. Have a bearing, that is.

Wagner's analysis of the arguments on both sides of the browser wars is interesting and well-explained.

Secure coding and design wins the argument every time - with regard to secure applications, that is. Of course, functionality, usability and other aspects of computer programs have to come into play and be taken into account, as well. But ultimately, the structural materials with which you build your house (be it brick or straw) determine whether you'll survive the hurricane. Or the wolves....

The little pig's big brother said, "Dude, you can't blow down a brick house. Brick is fundamentally more resistant to huffing and puffing."

Good point, Mitch.

Microsoft has published 2005 calendar templates for Word, Excel, FrontPage and PowerPoint:

http://office.microsoft.com/en-us/templates/CT011371131033.aspx