Yes, people, we are still alive here - the media in some places is getting overly excited. Really, nothing has happened as far as any major events. There is no ash in Portland or pretty much anywhere else as of today. Please stay calm, move along, nothing to see here (well nothing catostrophic anyhow, but plenty of interesting stuff). If you want to keep in touch with updates on the volcano as I post them, I have created a new category for posts and a matching feed.

Mt. St. Helens this morning let off the largest of its steam and ash emissions so far since the new volcanic activity started. Portland's KATU News got some great spot video becasue they just happened to be in the air when it started. Interestingly, the seismic activity dropped off when this emission took place, and has remained mostly low-level since.

In the image below, taken from the University of Washington's webicorders of the St. Helens South Ridge seismographic station, the seismic activity drops off right after 9am, which is when the new cloud of ash and steam was emitted:

Activity has - as you can see - stayed at a lower level since, with a few larger quakes occurring among a lot of smaller ones.

Clicking on either image will open a new window with the full size image from the U of W webicorder site.

An interesting anomaly on the webicorder readout during the 11am Pacific Time hour shows what is either a strange (harmonic?) event or a simple error in the seismic recording. Anyone know or have any idea what the wandering lines represent?

At any rate, ash and steam from the mountain went thousands of feet in the air and for the first time ash amounts were detectable on weather radar. Small amounts of ash fell around small towns northeast of the mountain and on US Hwy 12, which resulted in reduced visibility, according to media reports.

The lava dome, which was formed between the big explosive event in 1980 and 1986, has raised more than 150 feet since the events started. Last week they were excited over a 2 centimeter lift - In the past 36 hours the dome has lifted more than 50 feet.

The forecast is for more events like the ones we have been seeing, with a likelihood of an eventual (sooner or later) explosive event. If magma (hot molten rock) reaching the surface (at which point it's called lava) is new magma from deep inside the earth, it will contain lots of compressed gasses, which will create an explosive type of event that throws rock and ash in the air. If it is old magma, perhaps left over in a relatively shallow cavern from the 1980 eruption, it might not contain as much gas, and as a result it may just flow out and help build a newer, bigger dome in the volcano's crater, a process that could - eventually - build the mountain back up again.

But the amount of ash being thrown about has grown with each steam eruption so far, and the levels of magmatic gasses have also grown, so I am betting on bigger event, rather than smaller. Nothing like 1980, mind you - but spectacular, I will bet.

Those Earth Science classes in high school and junior high did some good after all. See? Good teachers make all the difference in the world.

Buy.com is taking pre-orders for the soon-to-be-released Media Center Extender devices made by Linksys.

What are Media Center Extenders? They are devices that communicate with a Windows Media Center 2005 (I believe that is an actual requirement, but will need to check) computer on your home network, allowing you to view and use media stored on the PC on your television systems. Think of it as an integration device that connects TV to music, images, live and recorded TV items on your Media Center PC. Note that Windows XP Media Center Edition 2005 will also be released soon.

• Connects your Home Entertainment Center to a Windows Media Center PC through a Wireless-A, Wireless-G, or wired network
• Watch home or downloaded digital movies and browse your digital pictures on your television. Also watch, pause, and record live TV shows
• Listen to your digital music collection and Internet radio through your stereo system 
  Select entertainment from on-screen menus with the easy-to-use remote control

So, what's so cool about that? Well, this device converges the media stored on your PC with the rest of your AV equipment - It means you can store all that video, music and image data and information in one place (on the Media Center PC) and view or listen to it anywhere you like on your home network (such as on your TV, your home theater system, the stereo system, etc). Plans are that you'll even be able to add a Media Center Extender title to your XBox system and watch movies, view pictures, and listen to music there.

Bobsled you say? Yeah. Code name for the Microsoft project while it was under development.

Find out more about Windows XP Media Center here, and more about Media Center Extenders here.

(info via Charlie Kindel)

When it's light out, it's great... When it's dark out, it's... well... dark. If it gets cloudy... you get the point. Click the picture below for the full-size image.

The SpaceShipOne team did it - they left the Earth's atmosphere twice in a week, winning the Ansari X Prize, which required a privately funded team to put a space vehicle that can carry three people into space twice in a two-week period. View the video of the winning flight and previous flights.

NPR Audio report: http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=4060565

I arrived back in Portland yesterday afternoon, and was met by my mom at the airport because she happened to be in town. Great timing, since Mt. St. Helens is coughing up steam and stuff these days. We made some stops along the drive home to look at the mountain (there are lots of great viewpoints near where I live). This morning we watched the big steam venting out of the crater, and then we drove back to the airport for her flight home.

It looks like the volcano is getting ready for something bigger. I have tried to estimate my house's distance from the volcano, because people keep asking (I assume out of concern). It looks like I live somewhere between 40 and 45 miles from the volcano (I will map it out sometime soon). So, no fears - the worst thing that would happen here is ash fallout (which can be problematic if you breathe it or get it in your eyes, and it's nasty on car paint and windows). But the winds at the mountain are blowing directly away from here right now. If it's going to blow, I just hope it happens when I am home, so I can snap some pictures and watch. And, in true form, Dan Appleman (whom I met at the conference last week) has some funny observations on volcanoes and politics that will generate a laugh or two. (Image by USGS, click for more pictures, or for seismographic info from the Cascade Mountains)

USGS Update: Mount St. Helens Update 4 October 2004 7:00 P.M.

Current status is Volcano Alert (Alert Level 3); aviation color code RED

This morning visitors to Mount St. Helens witnessed a 40-minute-long steam-and-ash emission starting at 9:43 PDT. Steam clouds carrying minor ash billowed out of the crater to an altitude of 10,000 to perhaps 12,000 feet. The event did not generate earthquakes or an explosion signal. We infer that hot rock was pushed up into the glacier, melted ice, and generated the steam. Part of the vent for today’s and other steam and ash emissions of the past few days is now covered by a boiling lake. The emission occurred during a time of gradually increasing seismicity, which dropped slightly after the emission, but continued to increase gradually through the afternoon. Another period of smaller steam and ash bursts occurred between 2:10 and 2:40 P.M. Visual observations show that the area of uplift, which includes part of the glacier and a nearby segment of the south flank of the lava dome, continues to rise. We infer that magma is at a very shallow level and could soon be extruded into the vent or elsewhere in the deforming area. Additional steam and ash emissions are likely and could occur at any time without warning. Conditions suggest that there is also an increased probability of larger-magnitude and more ash-rich eruptions in coming days.

Yesterday’s gas-sensing flight detected slightly lower concentrations of carbon dioxide in the crater, but for the first time the airborne instruments detected the presence of hydrogen sulfide. Wind conditions during today’s flight should permit the first estimation of the rate of gas flux.

I'm sitting in California at a geek conference (til tomorrow), and so I am missing the up-close excitement of what's happening at St. Helen's. The USGS raised the volcano cautionary level to III (press conference video link - WMV) today and evacuated the immediate area. Geologist say all indications are that magma is moving underground in the crater.

There's a good slideshow on KATU TV's web site from Friday's eruption. The KATU web site has a lot of great information and video, and you don't have to sign up and start getting spammed to access it, unlike on some other PDX news station sites. Score one for KATU - that's customer oriented content publishing. Thanks to KATU's decision-makers for that.

http://vulcan.wr.usgs.gov/Volcanoes/Cascades/CurrentActivity/current_updates.html

Mount St. Helens Notice of Volcano Alert, October 2, 2004

A notice of Volcano Alert (Alert Level 3) was issued today at 2:00 p.m. PDT

Immediately after the small steam emission at 12:15, seismic activity changed from principally rock breakage events to continuous low-frequency tremor, which is indicative of magma movement. We are increasing the alert level to Volcano Alert the highest alert level indicating that an eruption could be imminent.

The cause and outcome of the accelerating unrest is uncertain. Explosions from the vent could occur suddenly and without further warning. During such explosions the dome and crater floor are at greatest risk from ballistic projectiles, but the rim of the crater and flanks of the volcano could also be at risk. Explosions would also be expected to produce ash clouds that rise several to tens of thousands of feet above the crater rim and drift downwind. Currently wind forecasts from the National Weather Service, combined with eruption models, show that ash clouds will move to the northwest. If ash emissions are large, drifting ash could affect downwind communities. Minor melting of the glacier could trigger debris flows from the crater that are large enough to reach the Pumice Plain. There is very low probability that downstream communities would be impacted by these hydrologic events.

We continue to monitor the situation very closely and will issue additional updates as warranted, whether activity escalates or returns to background levels.

----------------------

Mount St. Helens Update, October 1, 2004, 7:00 P.M.

Current status is Alert-Level 2-Volcano Advisory

The increasingly energetic seismic swarm of the past week culminated in a small 25-miunute-long eruption around noon today from a vent just south of the lava dome. The vent opened in a portion of the glacier that had become increasingly crevassed and uplifted over the past few days. This deformation was probably driven by piston-like uplift of a portion of the lava dome and crater floor. The eruption sent a steam and minor ash plume to an altitude of about 10,000 ft. It drifted southwestward accompanied by minor ashfall in areas close to the volcano. Seismicity dropped to a low level for several hours after the eruption, but is gradually increasing with earthquakes (maximum Magnitude about 3) occurring a rate of 1-2 per minute. We infer that the system is repressurizing. As a result, additional steam-and-ash eruptions similar to today’s could occur at any time.

I didn't know I was going to be asked to speak, but Chris roped me into participating in a panel session first thing this morning, the topic of which was “the future of security.” It was an honor to do so, and the conversation was a good one. The audience was involved and had great questions and comments. The participants on the schedule were:

Picture below thanks to noded.com

Being involved up on the stage, I don't clearly remember everything we talked about in detail. I used/borrowed/stole the “PPT” mantra often used one of my friends and mentors, Jim, in my words during the panel discussion: “Security is about three things - People, Process and Technology.”

Security as a topic of conversation or debate, especially when discussed among geeks, seems always to attract such a strong technology focus. But the other two aspects of security - process and people - cannot be ignored. If you remove any one part from a security effort, it cannot ultimately succeed. If you have a successful security strategy and program already up and running, you cannot afford to forget to address and maintain all three components. If you do, again, it's bound to fail eventually.

Technology is important, though. You can't discount the fact that when you run computers and networks, technology is what you're securing, so you'll almost certainly use more technology to help you.

The panel discussed hardware security technology, and (as expected) the “patch and fix” and other typically Microsoft-centric topics and questions came up.

My response to the Microsoft-Security debate: Think about football teams. The team that plays tough games season after season and gets its butt kicked over and over will eventually learn the basics, and then will evolve into a mature powerhouse of a team. You just hope the other teams (the ones that had been kicking your team's butt) don't get too lazy or take any thing for granted. Or, if they do, that you have not made an investment in that team.

Three years ago, I was looking at Microsoft as a team I had a relationship with, but who I could not count on to win the game. Today my position is just the opposite: Microsoft has learned the hard lessons, has had their butts kicked, and has emerged from the fray a stronger, better and more mature company in the security arena. They may only be 60% there, as Scoble noted on the stage, but this is a team that I feel I can count on to do the right thing and fight the good fight.

This was a good session, covering a lot of ground. Feedback from audience members afterward was positive, which was cool. Security has become a hot topic in the past year or so in the user world, and will become even bigger in the future.

Again, because it bears repeating: Always Use Protection - buy it now. <eom>

I'm at Gnomedex, in the "Maximize your blogging potential" panel session, listening to all these guys talk. The conversation quickly moved to multimedia content and delivery as well as devices and tools. Here are some of my observations, paraphrasing the speakers.

I had the pleasure of meeting Eric Rice of audioblog.com last night, and he showed me a few cool new tricks, one of which is available now. If you use audioblog.com to do audio posts (and you should), you can now download your audio as a MP3 file. PODcasters out there might be interested in this new capability.

GnomeDex Picture Gallery started:

http://www.greghughes.net/gallery/folderview.asp?folder=GnomeDex 

It's about what you'd expect. A group of people from all over the country - well the world, actually - are converging on South Lake Tahoe for a couple days of Geek Fest. What do they want to do? Watch the presidential debates and have WiFi so they can blog about it while it happens. Heheh... Freakin' hard-core blodgers...

I might even join in on the debate action, except that I actually try to stay away from political positions on this site. I lean a little to the right (politically, now stop that), but mostly hang in the middle somewhere. I know who I like for this election (and am glad I feel that I have someone/thing to vote for, rather than having to vote against someone).

On a personal note, I had the opportunity to meet someone here whom I have always held in high regard, ever since we first conversed on the Internet back in 1996. [Sidenote: In our big-small world, it seems people tend to judge others without having actually met them. That has always bothered me, it's a mistake to do that. Forgive the analogy, but fact is you can't tell a book by its cover, and you can tell even less about a book from a picture of it's cover on Amazon. Believing its possible to know someone on the Internet the same way you would know them if you met them face-to-face is short-sighted and plain wrong.] So, while I have always suspected as much, I have now had the opportunity to confirm that Chris is a good and likeable guy, and a hard worker. And Ponzi is very cool, too. Oh and BTW Chris, it was PowWow by Tribal Voice - anyone remember that one??

There are others I am looking forward to meeting, as well - people with whom I have had professional or blogging contact frequently, but whose analog voices I have never heard and whose non-virtual hands I have never had the opportunity to shake. Thats the best part of this event for me - making the virtual relationships real.

By the way... The BlueGo Networks via Proto Networks WiFi hot-spots here suck. If I have to pay through the nose for WiFi, it sure as hell better work, and this service is worse than bad. Argh. It worked last night for the most part, and today it connects for 5 seconds and then drops out, then comes back for a minute or two, then drops. What a freakin' tease! Highly non-recommended.

I picked up a pair of SoundShield headphones from the Brookstone store in the PDX airport on my way out of town today, after a friend of mine showed me his and recommended (strongly) that I get some of my own. I was telling him how flying on jets causes me to get all tense and stressed by the time the flight is over, and he said it was the loud background noise, and that these headphones would make a world of difference.

He couldn't have been any more correct.

Not only do the headphones cancel out nearly all the background noise on the airplane, they also plug into my MP3 player or laptop (or the aircraft audio jack or whatever), and the sound reproduction is very good. The noise cancellation idea is amazing - I found myself asleep and arriving in Reno relaxed and without the muscle tension that normally ruins the plane flight for me.

Recommended - highly - for travelers.

Arrived in South Lake Tahoe this afternoon, and have already started meeting a lot of cool people, some of whom I have interacted with in the past, and a few new acquaintances as well.

Who I met today:

• Tom Novak (http://tonova.typepad.com/) from Atlanta
• Michael OConnor (http://www.ocomik.net/blog/index.html) from Oswego, Illinois
• Dave Belfer-Shevett (http://www.stonekeep.com) from Boston
• and Chris Pirillo (http://chris.pirillo.com) in person, finally

A bunch of great people. We talked geek stuff, politics, constitutional law, you name it (your typical tech conference fodder of course). I helped stuff bags for the attendees. Putting on a conference like this is a ton of work, something very few people actually understand, especially when you're a small company or organization running a show labor-of-love style. And that's what this is - there's no huge up-sell to come out of this, it's all about getting together, geeking out and learning from each other.

Quality is what this is all about, and the more I speak to people about it, the more excited I am to be here. I'd choose a conference like this, with a killer crew of really smart and talented people, over a thousand-attendee marketing fest any day, month or year.